Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 70211.832935 74243.483400 78280.023746 82621.690669 87156.464609 91750.140960 96752.216140
2025-04-13 63025.642971 69134.216105 75428.175114 82388.362308 89860.109028 97630.586390 106313.134538
2025-04-20 58834.815971 66426.862523 74426.753111 83465.233490 93373.360306 103884.445769 115858.183647
2025-04-27 55670.391369 64394.855598 73761.759206 84534.148519 96547.467210 109499.311129 124484.765362
2025-05-04 52779.888458 62373.539226 72844.914789 85075.655005 98919.873700 114054.579782 131800.123441
2025-05-11 50027.620525 60291.324898 71663.684096 85134.442289 100587.618225 117692.262589 137985.797562
2025-05-18 47740.822247 58583.219129 70763.542758 85377.023387 102345.494718 121338.532449 144112.194097
2025-05-25 45641.708177 56965.977339 69853.037773 85499.707920 103872.973218 124651.363853 149808.652254
2025-06-01 44301.241546 56157.624435 69810.028604 86565.888212 106441.832111 129128.384419 156835.131879
2025-06-08 42432.689097 54625.406836 68829.919341 86450.043071 107559.888040 131873.457712 161818.817142
2025-06-15 41462.232948 54124.830069 69032.551809 87702.234777 110268.551507 136468.936457 168979.867022
2025-06-22 40308.196409 53342.507237 68846.419043 88444.012947 112336.346110 140292.091165 175231.314230
2025-06-29 38865.815968 52163.054347 68147.634738 88545.744273 113632.594461 143217.660713 180462.761623
2025-07-06 37431.350601 50940.934700 67350.474690 88486.785033 114704.417838 145860.156319 185359.529202
2025-07-13 36691.339788 50565.116834 67575.692785 89670.078783 117286.127898 150327.811446 192480.743209
2025-07-20 35982.960751 50197.330531 67784.371932 90812.404406 119807.339592 154725.698981 199539.379457
2025-07-27 35060.028202 49515.091879 67563.959355 91388.394000 121606.613575 158235.039503 205522.570114
2025-08-03 33960.761428 48562.820126 66963.886257 91451.168321 122738.683254 160909.540375 210479.543112
2025-08-10 33006.185078 47768.251292 66536.747621 91708.336996 124096.534224 163854.873495 215776.480050
2025-08-17 32047.527003 46935.736301 66031.201990 91838.366129 125273.458987 166565.294081 220784.826965
2025-08-24 31553.169512 46710.174975 66304.313338 92968.087723 127725.965601 170882.888920 227827.272889
2025-08-31 30574.284004 45793.892287 65638.562385 92845.347689 128547.530540 173134.704346 232274.302263
2025-09-07 30217.363737 45717.988163 66078.757378 94171.986332 131247.244702 177778.445236 239771.089730